FOTG Presents: The Fungo Files

Hendry's Greatest Misses, 2008-2009 Edition

The reaction of some Cubs fans to this past offseason has been focused on a single trade: Mark DeRosa for three minor leaguers. According to many, Brock-for-Broglio is now #2 in “Worst Trades in Cub History.” The Cubs gave away the greatest player in Cubs history (next to Mark Grace, of course). In fact…

Mark DeRosa doesn’t read books. He just stares them down until he gets the information he wants.
Mark DeRosa’s hand is the only one that beats a Royal Flush.
Mark DeRosa can kill two stones with one bird.

While Mark DeRosa has been retroactively turned into Cubs’ fans version of Chuck Norris, it’s important to realize that there’s been a series of bad decisions, bad luck, and general crappiness that has lead to the blech that currently surrounds this Cubs team. Starting in July 2008, from top to bottom , this organization has made significant mistakes that, while they can certainly be overcome, have nonetheless put this team into a much bigger hole than most of us had anticipated for the 2009 season. While there are plenty more mistakes strewn about the organizational moves that have occurred over the last 3-4 years, but here are some of some of the most significant contributors to the Cubs’ current problems over the last year NOT including the Mark DeRosa trade:

#1: July 31, 2008-The LA Dodgers trade for Manny Ramirez

Without Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers would ne-eh-eh-eh-eh-eh-ever have won the West last year. Although I didn’t realize it at the time, the Dodgers were the single worst matchup the Cubs could have had in the playoffs last year. No team in the playoffs had a series of excellent control/sinkerballing right handed pitching that would highlight the Cubs’ general right-handedness. Of course, losses in these three games would mean more than the wins in 97 other games, because...

#2: October 2008-Jim Hendry Watches Playoffs

Could someone have simply lured Jim Hendry to some tv-less island in the Pacific with the promise of honey glazed delicacies during the 2008 playoffs? Yes-the Cubs had a lot of right handed hitters. In 99.9% of the situations, it wouldn’t have made a huge difference. In fact, it didn’t make that much of a difference in the 2008 playoffs (Ryan Dempster’s inability to throw strikes, along with about 1,000 other things, should be listed before “too right handed” comes in). Unfortunately, in true Jim Hendry fashion, he saw a single (minor) problem, decided to fixate on that problem, and built an entire offseason on a philosophy that really wasn’t going to make this team better. Speaking of philosophies that won't make the team better…

#3: November 14, 2008: Cubs trade Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg

Why is it when Jim Hendry openly declares that he wants to address a certain position in the offseason (in this case, the bullpen), he rarely succeeds in making the position better, but most certainly makes the position more expensive?

Year to year, the least predictable position on every single team is the bullpen. All bullpen pitchers are inherently limited. If they were truly solid, consistent pitchers, they’d be starters. The only thing that is guaranteed by signing middle relievers to contracts over $1 million per year is that you’re going to waste money. Yet Jim Hendry does it year after year. After year. After year.

Kevin Gregg is a mediocre middle reliever. So, really, is Aaron Heilman. There is almost no difference between Angel Guzman and Aaron Heilman, except maybe $1.5 million.

The Cubs will pay $9.5 million to relievers not named Carlos Marmol this year. Think about that a little bit, then try and not swallow a bottle of aspirin.

#4: November 18, 2008: Cubs re-sign Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster had a career year last year and a significant amount of it was due, unfortunately, to luck. Virtually all of his peripheral stats indicated that his shortcomings didn’t quite impact his overall numbers in the way they should have.

While Dempster is a decent starter, Hendry yet again jumped the gun and overpaid without letting the market dictate the best course of action. At the news conference announcing the signing, Hendry said, “"It was imperative that we kept him in-house. No doubt in our minds that Ryan would have exceeded this deal on the streets in three or four weeks from now, the way the market is for starting pitching.”

Unfortunately, the market didn’t quite respond the way he thought it would. Aside from the Sabathia and Burnett signings, very few of the Free Agent pitchers did better than Dempster, who unfortunately may be what he’s been for the majority of his career (i.e. a 4th starter) over the next four years.

#5: December 31, 2008: Cubs sign Aaron Miles

I played in a Six-Foot and under intramural basketball league in college. It was nice-all of us short, sad players were put on the same level and didn’t have to deal with 6’5” trees making us feel bad with all their “talent.” Apparently, Jim Hendry needed extra players for the MLB version of the Six Foot and Under league.

It wasn’t just that Aaron Miles sucks. Or that he sucks. Or that he sucks. It’s that, once again, Hendry completely misjudged the market, bid against himself (AGAIN), and paid 2.5 mil per year for a guy he could have gotten for $500,000 a month and a half later. Take a look at the infielders who signed this offseason:

Orlando Hudson: 1 year, $3.4 million ($4.6 in potential bonuses)
Ray Durham: Unsigned
Mark Grudzielanek: Unsigned
David Eckstein: 1 year, $850,000
Adam Everett: 1 year, $1 million
Alex Cora: 1 year, $2 million
Felipe Lopez: 1 year, $3.5 million
Joe Crede: 1 year, $2.5 million
Aaron Miles: 2 years, $4.9 million

This is a list of players who aren’t very good. Still, I’d take every single one of them over Aaron Miles-and Aaron Miles, considering both cost and length of contract is the MOST EXPENSIVE PLAYER ON THIS LIST.



While overreacting to 21 games is a little ridiculous, I don’t think it’s too early to begin to critique some of the moves Jim Hendry made this offseason. This GM has consistently been able to gloss over his mistakes by throwing unprecedented amounts of money at the Cubs’ shortcomings. Realistically, there is virtually no way to spend $134 million on a team (in a division in which no team spends near that much) and not be the best team. But, unlike GMs like Theo Epstein who spend a lot of money but also develop from within, Hendry has been unable to develop a minor league system that can fill gaps on the major league team-hence the need to consistently overpay for mediocrity.

Given the current financial situation of the Cubs, Hendry will have to actually be a real GM for the next year or so. So far, the returns aren’t good. The core of this team is aging quickly (some much more quickly than others, right Derrek?). If Hendry continues to show an inability to do what needs to be done within a budget, the next few years could be ugly.

Margin of Error on Pie's Five-Tool Evaluation Appears to be Five

As I'm sure my three readers already know, "top prospect" Felix Pie was traded to the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend.

From the Trib:

The Cubs waved goodbye Sunday to another center fielder of the future, trading Felix Pie to Baltimore for two young pitchers.

Once considered a five-tool prospect and the best player in the Cubs' farm system, Pie never panned out in stints with the Cubs in 2007 and '08.

Of course, the other "center fielder of the future" they are referencing is former Cub (and Oriole, oddly) Corey Patterson, another guy who was touted as a "five-tool player." Hmm, I think I'm sensing a pattern developing here.

There was a time not too long ago (think the Jerome Walton era) when prospects were just "good" or "not terrible" or even "less shitty than their predecessors." But with the invention of the interwebs and the increased scrutiny placed on each team's farm system, phrases like "five-tool" began to creep into the lexicon. For those of you unclear on this five-tool concept, it basically means a player is great in five categories:

1) Hitting for Power
2) Hitting for Average
3) Fielding
4) Throwing
5) Running

Think Willie Mays, Duke Snider, pre-steroids Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. when he could still walk upright. In other words, players who were better than everyone at everything. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, our version of a "five-tool player" is a tad different. A five-tool Cub is a player who:

1) Stumbles into the occasional long ball
2) Hits balls fair more than foul (or not at all)
3) Catches balls hit in his general direction
4) Throws balls at or near cutoff men
5) Runs like he has in fact "dropped the plow"

Needless to say, Cubs fans have been less than thrilled with our version of these "five-tool" players. For us, phrases like "can't miss" and "highly-touted" translate to "overrated" and "god-awful." Throw out the injury-shortened season where Patterson was starting to figure it out and the Cubs have yet to have a five-tool prospect succeed at the pro level.

What's even more frustrating is that they both often showed signs of greatness. Along with the aforementioned "breakout season" for Patterson, we have seen glimpses of their potential. There have been breath-taking catches, eye-popping lasers to the plate, jaw-dropping speed on the bases and even flashes of power that lasted more than one plate appearance.

But for every game that made Brenly say "I think the light just came on for him," there were 25 games where it was hard to believe either had played baseball before. To make matters worse (impossible, I know), both players were slow to adapt their game when they struggled. Corey hated to run or to use his speed in any way to help the team. Pie had a stroke so long that after strikeouts, the ball could go around the horn TWICE before he had completed his swing. To the casual fan, they appeared arrogant, selfish and a tad "prickish."

So they struggled and management made excuses.

"Be patient," they said.

"It's only a matter of time," they pleaded.

"They've been successful at every level," they harped.

But they never panned out. Patterson was booed out of town and thanks to a renewed urgency to "win now," the Cubs decided they couldn't wait around for Pie to stop swinging out of his shoes 4 times a game. Could Pie be good at some point? Maybe. Should the Cubs have waited to find out? No.

We all understand that evaluating prospects is a tricky business. As Hendry mentioned:

I don't think Soto was ever in the top 10, and I know Theriot was probably never in the top 30.

True. But neither of those two were "five-tool."

Maybe that's a good thing.

Go Cubs.

I'm Sure Hendry Thinks Trachsel Can Recreate the Magic of '07

Okay, so Jason Marquis has apparently “developed a split fingered fastball,” i.e. “found a way to surgically remove the suckitude just long enough to convince someone like Dusty Baker to think he's good,” and Ted Lilly continues to evade those people looking for the Zodiac Killer, so the Cubs rotation looks remarkably strong right now. However, if the Cubs want to (gulp) play deep into October, the general consensus is that they're going to need one more shut-down starter. Shane Falco Hill doesn't look like he'll ever get over the yips, so they're going to have to look outside the organization.

The good news-There are going to be quite a few pitchers of varying talent available for the Cubs over the next few weeks. According to a number of sites that feature actual news and not just idiots making bad “Replacements” references, the market looks to heat up sooner rather than later, as GMs on teams that are already out of it have finally realized they can get more for players if they, you know, trade them earlier in the season. So, without further adieu, a run down of six of the available starters:

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THE “IF WRIGLEY WERE THE SIZE OF A NATIONAL PARK, IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA” GROUP

Greg Maddux, Padres.
Glory days well they'll pass you by
Glory days in the wink of a young girl's eye

You were great once, Greg. You're a first ballot Hall of Famer and now that Roger Clemens has shrunk back to his Bruce Banner size, its pretty obvious you were the greatest non-roided up pitcher of my generation. But let's be honest, here. You'd be the 7th best starter on this team right now. Nostalgia only gets you so far.

Randy Wolf, Padres
Home and Away splits for Randy Wolf. End of story.

THE “HELL, MARK O'NEAL NEEDS SOMETHING TO DO WITHOUT PRIOR HERE” GROUP

A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
He apparently really wants to come to the Cubs, and would probably be a one-year rental. He has an option for '09 and Scott Boras likes money. Stay healthy, and the Cubs can leave the money on the nightstand.

Rich Harden, A's
When I was 11, I convinced my 8 year old neighbor to trade his 1963 Willie Mays card for my 1988 Mark Grace Donruss because “newer cards are shinier.” I have a feeling Billy Beane uses some of the same arguments when Jim Hendry calls about trades. Even so, if they can get him and manage not to give up the entire cities of Des Moines, Peoria, and Daytona, AND he stays healthy (yikes), he's probably the best pitcher available (even better than Anthony Anderson's long lost brother, C.C.).

THE “YAY FOR STUPID GMs ON OTHER TEAMS” GROUP

Eric Bedard, Mariners
So the Mariners give up four of their best players in their farm system for Eric Bedard, who proceeds to turn into Chet Steadman. Meanwhile, George Sherrill leads baseball in saves and the other three guys you traded are showing progress already. Its no wonder Bill Bavasi got fired today. You get pantsed by Andy MacPhail and you need to go. Thankfully, their ownership is already hitting the eject button on Bedard (and the rotting corpse of Richie Sexson), so the Cubs could potentially swoop in and get him for 60 cents on the dollar. Then again, Jim Hendry attempted to deal Ronny Cedeno, Matt Murton, Felix Pie, and Sean Gallagher for Brian Roberts. I'm going to go cry for awhile.

THE “DARYLE WARD WILL NOW HAVE TO FIGHT MMA STYLE TO BE THE FIRST ONE TO THE POSTGAME SPREAD” GROUP

C.C. Sabathia, Indians.
He's a free agent at the end of the year, so he'll probably be a rental. He was godawful in the playoffs last year and for the first month this year. He would require half the farm system in a trade. He doesn't bend the brim on his hat (a fashion trend in baseball that needs to stop. Now.). Yet I can't imagine the Cubs being anything less than a 2-1 favorite to win the World Series if they could find a way to pry him from the Indians.

Peter Gammons says the Cubs don't have enough to get Sabathia, which of course means that the Cubs are going to get him.

As someone who has absolutely no sources whatsoever and operates exclusively in the realm of baseless rumor, I would bet that the Cubs make a huge run at Sabathia, but end up with Burnett. Regardless, I have no doubt that the Cubs make a pretty big splash this season and get someone who is considered a difference-maker. And the day it happens, Cubs fans will explode with a joy that we haven't seen since July of 2004 when the Cubs made the biggest splash of the season by getting perennial all-star Nomar Garciaparra. That worked out well, didn't it?