Yes We Can.

Go Cubs.

Margin of Error on Pie's Five-Tool Evaluation Appears to be Five

As I'm sure my three readers already know, "top prospect" Felix Pie was traded to the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend.

From the Trib:

The Cubs waved goodbye Sunday to another center fielder of the future, trading Felix Pie to Baltimore for two young pitchers.

Once considered a five-tool prospect and the best player in the Cubs' farm system, Pie never panned out in stints with the Cubs in 2007 and '08.

Of course, the other "center fielder of the future" they are referencing is former Cub (and Oriole, oddly) Corey Patterson, another guy who was touted as a "five-tool player." Hmm, I think I'm sensing a pattern developing here.

There was a time not too long ago (think the Jerome Walton era) when prospects were just "good" or "not terrible" or even "less shitty than their predecessors." But with the invention of the interwebs and the increased scrutiny placed on each team's farm system, phrases like "five-tool" began to creep into the lexicon. For those of you unclear on this five-tool concept, it basically means a player is great in five categories:

1) Hitting for Power
2) Hitting for Average
3) Fielding
4) Throwing
5) Running

Think Willie Mays, Duke Snider, pre-steroids Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. when he could still walk upright. In other words, players who were better than everyone at everything. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, our version of a "five-tool player" is a tad different. A five-tool Cub is a player who:

1) Stumbles into the occasional long ball
2) Hits balls fair more than foul (or not at all)
3) Catches balls hit in his general direction
4) Throws balls at or near cutoff men
5) Runs like he has in fact "dropped the plow"

Needless to say, Cubs fans have been less than thrilled with our version of these "five-tool" players. For us, phrases like "can't miss" and "highly-touted" translate to "overrated" and "god-awful." Throw out the injury-shortened season where Patterson was starting to figure it out and the Cubs have yet to have a five-tool prospect succeed at the pro level.

What's even more frustrating is that they both often showed signs of greatness. Along with the aforementioned "breakout season" for Patterson, we have seen glimpses of their potential. There have been breath-taking catches, eye-popping lasers to the plate, jaw-dropping speed on the bases and even flashes of power that lasted more than one plate appearance.

But for every game that made Brenly say "I think the light just came on for him," there were 25 games where it was hard to believe either had played baseball before. To make matters worse (impossible, I know), both players were slow to adapt their game when they struggled. Corey hated to run or to use his speed in any way to help the team. Pie had a stroke so long that after strikeouts, the ball could go around the horn TWICE before he had completed his swing. To the casual fan, they appeared arrogant, selfish and a tad "prickish."

So they struggled and management made excuses.

"Be patient," they said.

"It's only a matter of time," they pleaded.

"They've been successful at every level," they harped.

But they never panned out. Patterson was booed out of town and thanks to a renewed urgency to "win now," the Cubs decided they couldn't wait around for Pie to stop swinging out of his shoes 4 times a game. Could Pie be good at some point? Maybe. Should the Cubs have waited to find out? No.

We all understand that evaluating prospects is a tricky business. As Hendry mentioned:

I don't think Soto was ever in the top 10, and I know Theriot was probably never in the top 30.

True. But neither of those two were "five-tool."

Maybe that's a good thing.

Go Cubs.

2008 MVP? Answer is as easy as...(pun removed at request of host).

No, I did not suffer a major head trauma over the weekend (that I can remember) nor am I currently drunk. I am, in fact, dead serious. The 2008 Chicago Cubs MVP is Felix Pie. Yes, that Felix Pie.

(Waiting patiently for my four readers to stop shaking their heads.)

Don't believe me? Let's take a trip down memory lane, shall we. Coming out of spring training, the young phenom Pie was all set to take over in center. It was his time to shine. Problem was, he forgot to bring his bat with him when they broke camp. In 30 games to start the year, the "5-tool" star managed 14 hits. FOURTEEN. That's half a hit per game for all you math geeks. That is not exactly making the most of your opportunity. In those same 30 games, he struck out a whopping 23 times. He drove in 7 and had a homer. Pie jerseys were approaching "Half Off!" status and the boo-birds were out in force at Wrigley.

So how is he the MVP? It is because of this amazing display of sucktitude that Jim "yes, I have room for thirds" Hendry was able to make TWO very important roster moves that solidified the Cubs as the team to beat in the NL.

1) Reed Johnson

After being let go by the Blue Jays, Johnson was basically just looking to play baseball...anywhere...when Hendry scooped him up. Originally just acquired as an extra outfielder, all Reed did was shove Pie aside and start raking the ball. In 86 games, he's slugging .458 with 45 runs scored. He's been solid in center and clutch when it counts. Basically, he was the anti-Pie. Not bad for a guy without a team in April.

2) Jim Edmonds

Speaking of guys without a team, Jimbo was hobbled by a calf injury to start the season and was putting up Pie-like numbers for the Padres. Showing absolutely zero patience for the struggling veteran who had done nothing but hit his whole career, San Diego gave Edmonds his walking papers after only 26 games. Ouch. Despite many desperate pleas by dumb-ass bloggers like this idiot, Hendry signed Jim and hooked him up to the rejuvenation machine. Just like Reed, he has caught everything hit his way in center and belted 15 HR along the way. Not bad at all for a former douchebag.

So as the Cubs head down the homestretch, moving closer and closer to a win total that should end up somewhere north of 90, take a moment to thank Mr. Pie for all he has done for this team. Without his valuable lack of contributions early in the season, our beloved team wouldn't have the best record in baseball let alone a 4.5 game lead in the division. Way to go Pie, your MVP trophy is in the mail!

Go Cubs.

From Now On, That's How You Drive!

Hell of a game last night. I have a few observations to share, but the one thing that really stuck out for me was what Wood did AFTER he tried to groove a fastball past Jason Bay and gave up the donkey.

Instead of melting down, he got the next 3 batters on 12 pitches.

Strike (swinging), Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (looking)—Strikeout Looking
Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Ball, Ball—Ground Out to 3B
Ball, Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Strike (looking)—Strikeout Looking

It was impressive. So much so that I yelled at the TV...






That IS how he's supposed to "drive." That's what we all expected from him. No messing around. Just nasty fastballs on the corner and sick sliders that make the hitter pee themselves a little bit. Wood showed me something last night. Now let's see if he can bring that kind of nastiness to EVERY batter, not just the ones after he gets faced. I for one think he can.

More thoughts after the jump.

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1. Felix
Marty may hunt me down and kill me for saying this, but even AFTER he drove in the game winning RBI, I still think he's really gonna struggle this year. Why? His swing is waaaaaaaaaaay too long. All you have to do is watch one at-bat and you can see what the scouting report is on him.

Work the fastball up and in. Then go away, away, away with the breaking ball.

He can't get his swing started fast enough to touch either. Now that being said, if he can stay with pitches like the one he hit last night or if he can compact his swing to get to the inside stuff he could really succeed at the big league level. But those are two really big 'ifs." Sorry, Marty.

2. 30 LOB in 2 games
When Len mentioned this last night I nearly fell out of my chair. 30 guys? And we won both games? How in the hell does that happen? If I was a Pirates fan (shuddering) and I saw that stat, I think it would be time to put a hose on the tailpipe and close the garage door. There is no way we can continue to do that and win games. That is, unless they've changed the schedule without my knowledge and we play ONLY the Pirates for the rest of the year.

3. Those Darn Scrappy Pirates
Coming into this series, I thought of the Bucs as the SF Giants of the NL Central. I now realize that assessment was way off base and a tad mean.

They've got some solid position players and a TON of left-handed pitching (both in the rotation and in the bullpen). I swear they threw 30 consecutive lefties at us on Monday. That doesn't bode well for the season series. As everyone knows, the Cubs can't hit lefties for shit (especially the soft-tossing and the "just-called-up-to-face-the-Cubs" variety). In what now looks like a more competitive division than was previously anticipated, we HAVE to win against these guys. Mark my words...if we don't win the division, it will be because we lose a ton of games we shouldn't against the Pirates (and probably the Giants too because karma is a bitch).

Anyway, another "a win is a win is a win" type game for the Cubs. Here's hoping they can actually win one in 9 innings tonight. I'm not holding my breath.

Go Cubs.

HOUSEKEEPING NOTES:
RSS: We added a RSS feed for FOTG, so now you can add us to your daily blog readings by just clicking the link on the right. You're welcome.

Comments: I removed the "registered users only" restriction, so now you can comment anonymously if you want to. I did this in hopes of increasing the amount and frequency of comments, so feel free to add your thoughts/criticisms without telling us who your are (wusses).


Go Cubs.

What I've Learned, Overreaction Edition, Part II

Paul Sullivan writes this in today’s blog on chicagosports.com:

Reed Johnson looks like he's ready to become the everyday centerfielder, even though it would give the Cubs eight right-handed hitters. It's early, but Felix Pie's .235 on-base percentage just isn't cutting it.

Felix Pie is 3-16. Reed Johnson is 4-13. I think removing Pie from the centerfield job after 16 at bats is the least this team can do. They should demote him to rookie ball, make him pay to remain in the organization, and cease to serve any types of pie at the craft services table in the clubhouse. Because 16 at bats is more than enough time to prove that a guy who is 23 can’t contribute to a major league team. Let’s ignore the fact that he’s torn up every level he’s been in. And the fact that he’s had less than 200 major league at bats, given without any consistency whatsoever over the course of a season and a half. And the fact that Reed Johnson has never shown any ability to hit right handed pitching in his career. Screw all that-Pie, you’re done. What a bust. He’s destined to go through a career like this bust, whose numbers through his first 200 ABs looked like this:

AVG: .224, OBP: .259, SLG: .355

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Good thing the Mariners gave up on that Alex Rodriguez chump. What a punk that guy was.

Questions Answered, Fears Realized

For those of you not recovering from the worst flu imaginable followed by four straight days of hardcore drinking and college basketball, you are probably already aware that Lou answered a bunch of lineup-related questions yesterday.

I don't know if I should be excited, relieved or worried. I'm gonna go with worried.

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Question #1: Who is going to be the Cub's closer?

This one really wasn't in doubt other than the brief back scare a few weeks back. Howry stunk up the joint all spring. Marmol was Marmol. And "The Artist Formerly Known as Kid K" managed to pitch enough consecutive innings to become the sexy choice. EVERYONE wants this to work out for Kerry. Fans, players, management...pretty much everyone not a White Sox or Cardinals fan (ie people with their souls still intact) are hoping he can really make it this time. The problem is, with that many folks collectively pulling for him AND the fact that this is the friggin' Chicago Cubs we are talking about here, all signs point to big trouble. I don't want to be a "Debbie Downer" here, but the chances of this story having a happy ending are about a trillion to one. I hope I'm wrong. I'm praying I'm wrong, actually. And therein lies the rub.

Crap.

Question #2: Who is going to be in the 5-man rotation?

This one was a tad less obvious. After the three sure things (Lilly, Z and Hill) there were 3-4 guys competing for 2 spots...a young guy with a smoking hot wife, an angry veteran who had already pissed off the manager two days into Spring Training by demanding a trade, a seasoned veteran coming off major off-season surgery and a starter/closer/starter. Exciting, no?

Dempster looked good enough to lock down one spot this spring. His velocity wasn't great and neither was his control, so this is obviously a solid move. There is still a chance he could be back in the pen by mid-season, but I bet he gets a ton of chances to make it (or blow it depending on your overall outlook) before that terrible idea is even considered.

That left three more.


So, Lieber had more wins, a better ERA and more K's in basically the same number of innings as Marquis. So he's the big winner, right? Not quite.

Marquis gets the nod and Lieber is now long relief (aka stuck in Purgatory). Everything I read says this is only because the Cubs are still trying to find a sucker to take Marquis off our hands and not listing him as a starter drives down his value. Whatever.

All I see is a pitcher who did everything asked of him this spring AND didn't bitch being rewarded with the always fun duty of eating up innings when someone (Read: Marquis) poops the bed. My excitement is almost palpable.

Question #3: Who wins the center field job?

This one came down to Pie's one healthy testicle versus Fuld's two. It's gotta suck when you get beat by a guy with less healthy balls. Enjoy AAA, Sammy.

Question #4: Brian Roberts or no Brian Roberts?

Still up in the air last I checked, although we did sign Ex-Blue Jay Reed Johnson today. So we've got that going for us, which is nice. Right?

Sigh.

Go Cubs.

UPDATE: Here is quite possibly the funniest thing that will ever be written about Reed Johnson. Kudos to Hire Jim Essian!

Johnson is basically what you’d get if you took away a chunk of Matt Murton’s power, added a bunch of strikeouts, marginally improved his defense, and then slugged him in the lower back with a baseball bat.

I don't care who you are...that's funny.

Go Cubs.

UPDATE #2: Just went back and reread this. Yikes. After some serious edits, the post is now available for your reading pleasure in actual English. My bad.

Go Cubs.

Someone got a gold star from their copy editor today...

From today's Sun-Times article about Pie's unfortunate injury...

One man's torsion could be another's twist of fate in the Cubs' center-field competition.

Really? That's what you went with? What, you couldn't find a way to work testicular into a headline?

What about just the headline "Nuts." No? Too straightforward?

You sicken me.

More later.

Go Cubs.

Other than that, he's great...

ESPN's Jerry Crasnic dropped some knowledge on MLB prospects and had this to say about everyone's favorite 5-tool player, Felix Pie:

Right now Pie has three things to overcome: (1) A swing that's a tad long, (2) a tendency to expand his strike zone too readily and (3) trouble with breaking balls.

(GULP)

Are you kidding me? So, basically he's saying that other than his swing, plate discipline and lack of ability to hit balls that have movement, he's a "phenom." Super.

Go Cubs.